Fermi paradox? The one about aliens existing?

Yea. Slightly modified - "If conditions are now so prefect now that 8 billion humans can ask their computer nicely to program itself, and it works, then why is non-shit-tier software still vanishingly rare?"

Oh that way. Now I get it.

Anyone can prompt Shlawp to write some code, but an expert would need to check it for errors and stupid design decisions. Normally, the user isn’t qualified to verify the validity of the answer or quality of the code and that’s why people who use Shlawp can’t make high quality applications.

So, when you say “it works” it’s true for being able to generate at least some kind of code, not good code. The thing about Shlawp is that all of its outputs are very mediocre at best. They look convincing to everyone who aren’t qualified to evaluate the outputs. Those who are, will immediately notice all sorts of flaws.

I’ll back you up on this. I’ve had the experience of seeing Claude fabricate stuff, and then when I challenge it, it says something like “I guessed, let me look deeper” and then it indeed does check deeper with docs or a configured LSP etc and then discovers the real answer.

It doesn’t matter if this was the result of reasoning or just more pattern prediction, the result is that if you tell it not to guess, it responds appropriately.

This doesn't make a lot of sense. Just because everyone can use Word doesn't mean you can't make a business using it. Oh no, everyone has calculators, guess you can't have a business that uses calculators. Businesses and people in general use the best tools available for the job, which might be pencil and paper, or eventually an LLM.

You aren't separating hardware/training costs and costs when the models are developed. Ask the Chinese how thats working out for them, and one of many reasons why their models are so much cheaper.

You're conflating a tool with a service.

If you noticed that calculators were really good at adding up numbers, and started a business using a calculator to add up numbers for people, you won't attract any customers because people can just use their own calculators.

That does not mean businesses do not use calculators.

Wild, accountants must not exist in your mind. Everyone can own a computer but there are massive services of renting those computers 'in the cloud'. Everyone can buy storage, but for some reason the majority think its easier and cheaper to buy in the cloud. Hell, you could go to the store and purchase a movie, but many still think seeing them in a theatre, or you know, streaming them are a better option. You say LLMs have no business opportunity which seems to show the failure of your thinking.

If you think accountants "add up numbers" in 2026 then I can't help you mate.