Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/middle-east-war-decided-interceptors-missiles

The outcome and duration of the war in the Middle East may be decided by a grim calculus based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stocks v vital air defence munitions held by the US, Israel and Gulf states, analysts and officials say.

Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have sought to counter the intensive joint US and Israeli offensive with more than 1,000 strikes against targets across almost a dozen countries spread over 1,200 miles. With its antiquated air force unable to compete with those of Israel and the US, Tehran has relied on its arsenal of missiles and drones.

The geographical extent of Iran’s retaliatory attacks have made the conflict the widest in the Middle East since the second world war. Israeli and US aircraft and missiles have struck hundreds of sites across Iran, without losing a plane to hostile fire.

The US and Israel are seeking to destroy as much of Iran’s missile stockpile and infrastructure as possible, targeting launchers, stores and personnel.

No surprise. Any war is largely decided on ability to maintain supplies.

And since our billionaire class gifted away our industrial capacity to other countries, we can't engage in an attrition war now. But our military planners and civilian leadership haven't caught up to that.

Considering we've been using the already very limited stockpile of $5m patriot missiles to intercept $35k Shahed drones in some cases, I don't think this is really a question of "who will run out first?" The US and Israel's "warfighting" experience in the last 30+ years is almost entirely fighting enemies with no ability to retaliate. This isn't a war that they can win, just a war that they can lose less badly than Iran.

It could, or it could be decided the same way every war the US has waged for decades has been decided. It has been well established for all the world to see that even though it is not possible to outproduce the US's military industrial complex, it is possible to win anyway if you don't surrender for as long as it takes the US public to stop tolerating throwing away their children's lives for nothing. The US military's logic that weapons are all it takes to win a war has been tested over and over again it and it's proven false very consistently. Iran can only lose if it surrenders. We have no victory condition again so we can't win.

The US is out of money, industrial capacity is decimated, and the only viable tax base is the billionaire class who have made it clear they have no intention of paying. IDK how the US will be able to keep up this pace into next month.