A lot of prepper content seems to wrongly focus on grand sudden events-Hollywood-style collapses of society or environment. The reality, from the fall of Rome to Lebanon this century, is that collapse is usually a slow crumbling where the things people rely on become less and less reliable.

A useful intuition pump is to do your threat modelling with two likely events that, if they happened separately, would only be inconveniences, but together pose a serious threat.

For example:

• Your kid is away at summer camp and there’s a gasoline supply shock.
• A storm washes out your road and your dad gets readmitted to the hospital.
• There’s a wildfire and your car battery is dead.

What are the two most likely inconveniences given your loved ones and where you live?