RetroFed Forums

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

Welcome to the nostalgia-filled piefed instance of yesteryear.

Open Registration with Application questionnaire.

If you have a question or comment you can post in !meta@retrofed.com or message @DosDude@retrofed.com or @Die4Ever@retrofed.com

In case of downtime and/or emergency, we will post updates on @DosDude@mastodon.social

Some rules we try to uphold:

Be civil. Bigotry is not welcome. This includes (but is not limited to): transphobia, queerphobia, racism, ageism and ableism. We do not promote hate.
Communities need to be Retro or Retro-adjacent.
Please don't upload pornographic content. (use an external image host for that)

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

Welcome to the nostalgia-filled piefed instance of yesteryear.

Open Registration with Application questionnaire.

If you have a question or comment you can post in !meta@retrofed.com or message @DosDude@retrofed.com or @Die4Ever@retrofed.com

In case of downtime and/or emergency, we will post updates on @DosDude@mastodon.social

Some rules we try to uphold:

Be civil. Bigotry is not welcome. This includes (but is not limited to): transphobia, queerphobia, racism, ageism and ableism. We do not promote hate.
Communities need to be Retro or Retro-adjacent.
Please don't upload pornographic content. (use an external image host for that)

	Replies	Author	Score	Last Post
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%. (metaculus.substack.com)	0	copacetic	-2	Thu Sep 24, 2026 9:37 am »
Forecasting the Fallout from the Hugging Face Incident (metaculus.substack.com)	2	copacetic	2	Wed Sep 9, 2026 8:54 pm »
Superforecasters Continue to Beat the Futures Market (goodjudgment.substack.com)	0	copacetic	1	Thu Aug 27, 2026 8:16 am »
interview with Robin Hanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets (news.polymarket.com)	0	copacetic	3	Sun Aug 16, 2026 6:31 pm »
The AI Superforecasters Are Here (www.astralcodexten.com)	0	copacetic	-4	Fri Jul 3, 2026 3:20 pm »
Forecasting Mathematics (news.manifold.markets)	0	copacetic	4	Fri May 22, 2026 8:26 am »
Forecasting Hantavirus (news.manifold.markets)	0	copacetic	3	Wed May 20, 2026 1:31 am »
Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It (forum.effectivealtruism.org)	0	copacetic	2	Sat May 2, 2026 10:43 am »
Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers (nwprtnarrative.substack.com)	0	copacetic	2	Sat May 2, 2026 10:42 am »
Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions (blog.aifutures.org)	0	copacetic	2	Fri Apr 24, 2026 9:00 am »
Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat (www.niemanlab.org)	1	copacetic	2	Tue Apr 21, 2026 8:25 am »
I underestimated AI capabilities (again) (www.planned-obsolescence.org)	0	copacetic	2	Sat Mar 7, 2026 7:27 pm »
BahnBet — Bet on German Train Delays (bahn.bet)	1	copacetic	0	Fri Mar 6, 2026 3:30 pm »
Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience (forecasting.substack.com)	0	copacetic	1	Tue Feb 10, 2026 6:11 pm »
Polymarket vs Forecasting: Geopolitical Shifts in 2026 (swiftcentre.substack.com)	0	copacetic	1	Mon Feb 2, 2026 8:37 pm »
He Predicted the Next Shutdown 3 Weeks Early (news.polymarket.com)	0	copacetic	0	Wed Jan 28, 2026 8:09 am »
AI predictions for 2026 (www.planned-obsolescence.org)	0	copacetic	1	Thu Jan 15, 2026 7:57 pm »
Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls (www.astralcodexten.com)	0	copacetic	1	Tue Jan 13, 2026 7:33 pm »
Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference? (www.metaculus.com)	0	copacetic	1	Fri Jul 25, 2025 7:25 am »
$286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’ (news.polymarket.com)	0	copacetic	1	Thu Jul 17, 2025 8:23 pm »
How accurate are prediction markets? (brier.fyi)	0	copacetic	1	Thu Jul 10, 2025 6:34 pm »
Forecasting America (news.manifold.markets)	0	copacetic	1	Thu Jul 10, 2025 4:51 pm »
He Made $300k Betting on a “Narcissistic Sociopath” (news.polymarket.com)	0	copacetic	1	Fri Jun 27, 2025 7:18 am »
Iranian Regime Is Cooked: Forecaster Who Predicted Israeli Strike (news.polymarket.com)	0	copacetic	1	Fri Jun 20, 2025 11:12 pm »
Escalation Between Iran and Israel: Forecasts Amid Rapid Developments (www.swiftcentre.org)	0	copacetic	1	Fri Jun 13, 2025 10:49 pm »