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🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset (news.polymarket.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? (ericneyman.wordpress.com) 0 copacetic 2 »
Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration (peterwildeford.substack.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
The War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictions (thecategoricalimperative.substack.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market (nodumbideas.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Manifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money again (manifoldmarkets.notion.site) 0 copacetic 1 »
The State of Metaculus (www.metaculus.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest (www.astralcodexten.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via 0 Lars Trieloff 1 »
Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced (www.astralcodexten.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google (asteriskmag.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Mantic Monday: Judgment Day (www.astralcodexten.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’ (www.wsj.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet (news.polymarket.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk (samotsvety.org) 0 copacetic 1 »
Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet (tellingthefuture.substack.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
2024 Electoral Consequences (www.metaculus.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Mantic Monday 9/16/24 (www.astralcodexten.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts (comments.cftc.gov) 0 copacetic 1 »
The twists of the election in Venezuela (x.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC (www.mikesblog.net) 0 copacetic 1 »
Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news (www.axios.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise (nathanpmyoung.substack.com) 0 copacetic 1 »
You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more (riskacademy.blog) 0 copacetic 1 »
Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24 (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) 0 copacetic 1 »
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