Topics Replies Author Score Last Post
🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset
(news.polymarket.com)
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copacetic
1
Mon Jun 2, 2025 8:27 pm
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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)
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copacetic
2
Thu May 29, 2025 6:06 pm
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Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
(peterwildeford.substack.com)
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copacetic
1
Tue Apr 22, 2025 9:43 am
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The War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictions
(thecategoricalimperative.substack.com)
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copacetic
1
Thu Mar 13, 2025 5:35 pm
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Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market
(nodumbideas.com)
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copacetic
1
Fri Mar 7, 2025 4:43 pm
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Manifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money again
(manifoldmarkets.notion.site)
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copacetic
1
Wed Feb 12, 2025 11:49 pm
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The State of Metaculus
(www.metaculus.com)
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copacetic
1
Sat Feb 8, 2025 2:05 am
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Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest
(www.astralcodexten.com)
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copacetic
1
Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:12 pm
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https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via
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Lars Trieloff
1
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:09 pm
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Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced
(www.astralcodexten.com)
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copacetic
1
Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:57 pm
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The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google
(asteriskmag.com)
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copacetic
1
Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:56 pm
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Mantic Monday: Judgment Day
(www.astralcodexten.com)
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copacetic
1
Tue Nov 5, 2024 1:47 pm
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The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’
(www.wsj.com)
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copacetic
1
Mon Nov 4, 2024 7:14 am
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5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet
(news.polymarket.com)
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copacetic
1
Sun Nov 3, 2024 9:14 pm
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Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk
(samotsvety.org)
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copacetic
1
Tue Oct 22, 2024 11:08 pm
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Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet
(tellingthefuture.substack.com)
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copacetic
1
Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:54 am
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2024 Electoral Consequences
(www.metaculus.com)
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copacetic
1
Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:26 pm
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Mantic Monday 9/16/24
(www.astralcodexten.com)
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copacetic
1
Sun Sep 22, 2024 12:20 pm
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Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts
(comments.cftc.gov)
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copacetic
1
Mon Sep 9, 2024 7:59 pm
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The twists of the election in Venezuela
(x.com)
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copacetic
1
Mon Sep 9, 2024 12:29 pm
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Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC
(www.mikesblog.net)
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copacetic
1
Sat Sep 7, 2024 11:13 am
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Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news
(www.axios.com)
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copacetic
1
Sat Aug 3, 2024 11:59 pm
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Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise
(nathanpmyoung.substack.com)
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copacetic
1
Sun Jul 28, 2024 9:43 am
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You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more
(riskacademy.blog)
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copacetic
1
Thu Jul 11, 2024 9:08 pm
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Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24
(explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)
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copacetic
1
Thu Jul 11, 2024 9:05 pm
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