If you have not organized your community yet now is the time

https://www.liveliketheworldisdying.com/were-all-preppers-now/

I'm no statistician but that seems not good

theres going to be an awful lot of rain somewhere in the next few months

Economists just see a line going up.

That only shows how fast a few individuals with too much money and politicians with no backbone can destroy the world.

Say you live in a flood prone area. Obviously a go bag is a good idea. Is there anything in the coming months that can be done beyond that?

You could talk to your neighbours, prepare an emergency plan for potential disasters

Bigger number -> Better person

Here's the rainfall anomalies for a three month period covering november, december and january.
Source: ECMWF

Sort of depends what your resources are, there's a continuum between doing nothing and full doomsday prepper. It also depends on what sort of flood you're preparing for. Like, 6 inches of water in the house, or the house is gone? Anything that gets touched by flood water is basically coated in literal shit, so you have to prepare for everything from the water level down to be completely wrecked but (hopefully) not utterly smashed like in a tornado.

Probably wise to keep some water and food. A small power bank for electronics. If you have expensive or irreplaceable things put them on an upper floor or at least off the ground if you can. If you've got some more money you could think about a generator, not just for you but for your sump pump (if you've got one). If you plan to leave maybe scope out a place you can go so you don't end up in a shelter. Figure out a plan for your animals, if you have any.

If you have insurance, take pictures or record everything you have. You want make and model of everything when it comes time to get reimbursed. You will forget a bunch of shit, and if you specify "coffee maker" you will get a $15 coffee maker, instead of the "Miele UltraCoffee 9000, Stainless Steel, with Grinder" that you lost (for example).

https://www.cdc.gov/floods/safety/index.html

Have you all your important documents, photos in the cloud?

Thanks. My neighborhood is protected by a levy so it's kind of a NOLA situation where flooding is probably all or nothing. However from what I've been reading, the levies are no longer able to contain a potentially historic flood due to climate change, and with this severe El Niño it seems much more likely to occur this year than a normal one.

No. Is there a good option for cloud storage that isn't a privacy nightmare?

Selfhosting isn't really an option in this case, but Nextcloud is a thing.

For this situation, I guess just storing them in external SSD's and stashing those (multiple for redundancy) in watertight containers within your home.

The best preparation for disaster is building community. Form tenant unions and labor unions. Join or form community gardens. Join your local library. Talk to your neighbors. Anything that creates cohesion with the people around you. Then, when a disaster hits, the community doesn't need to come together because it's already together

Nah. We've been working methodically towards this since the industrial revolution.

The thing that's changed fast is that the US has abandoned any semblance of a proactive mitigation strategy.

Yes, climate change is pretty terrible and the future looks gloomy. Also, I agree that everyone should do some planning and preparation for a disaster.

However, I'm not sure exactly what you're getting at here. Yes, it's terrifying that this particular metric is off the chart. However, what does it actually portend for people reading this post ? In Australia for example El Nino is a period of reduced rainfall. Not drought, just reduced rainfall. Yes sea surface temperatures are correlated with hurricanes but El Nino is an anomaly of sea surface temps in a very specific area of the pacific ocean.

Shit is fucked, but posting a vaguely scary graph and telling people to fill their bath tubs is more likely to build apathy and readiness atrophy than inspire people to build communities.

Oopsiedoodle

Guys dont you get it, this is what you want, its anarchy but for weather /s

my only experience here is this post, but my understanding is that OP is trying to raise awareness and get people to rally for change for the climate in general. this chart may not affect you, but the things that caused it do

How can i convince more people to build community?

Engage with them by having real honest discussions?

We encrypt a drive and trade it with a friend at their house. I also have some stuff at my moms house as backup, but now that I think about it, I haven’t updated it this year.

Infinite growth == infinite person

I think the problem is that you might get drought this time around.

This post is titled "El Nino Update" and warns people to take action now. If it's actual intent is to raise awareness of climate change in general then that's an egregious click bait title.

Do you have a source for that? Or is that vibe based reasoning?

Just went through record rain which flooded a lot of basements, and then almost had a tornado but the storm did deliver golf ball sized hail.

If we all just work hard, we can all have the highest number and be infinite.... Wait.....

They're saying this is normal now, the system is much higher energy and more chaotic, with bigger differentials to equalize. That means everything is far less predictable. That doesn't sound so bad if youre a city-mouse who's only worked fake-ass PMC email jobs, but if you've ever worked with logistics or agriculture you need a shower and a change of pants about now.

It means notable named states like 'drought' and 'famine' and 'hurricane' and 'monsoon', even totally new disasters we hadn't seen before industrializing like rivers of fire sharknadoes and zombie-fire are going to be as normal to us in old age as rain and tornadoes were to our grandparents.

We're probably losing more atmosphere to convection, too, but I say that based on absolutely nothing.

In simpler terms: first Europe turned into a literal god damn oven, at a temperature I can set my oven to. But I didn't stop burning coal because it snowed here in the southern hemisphere.

That doesn't work. I try it every time I'm on the train.

Do you mean lie and say everything's gonna be fine?

Prepare 3-4 emergency plans. If you have only one, and shit goes sideways, you want a backup plan. And a backup plan for your backup plan.

Anything will work as long as you encrypt first.

Up to 7" in parts of Minnesota is expected tonight.

I'll get right on that as soon as people become less awful.

Are you talking with people you are seeing for the first time and will never see again? Because those wouldnt be great targets to build community with.

Not really my strenght as well, but I recently listened to this podcast which seemed to have some solid advice around community building:

Talking to Rural Conservatives - it first read out the zine with the same name and then starts a discussion about it

I do both. I do see some of them again; people have regularish schedules, but train is more for read than write.

If it's anything like where I lived, they might also just sacrifice your neighborhood by letting it flood to protect a much bigger one downstream (the little neighborhood known as "the greater Paris Area" in my case)

🤑

Goddamn... Get your wellie boots!

It's in the red!

Oh, I like Margaret.

Religion! Earth is god oil is her blood demons have fooled the masses into killing her. Gaia is being murdered

Some wire shelves to keep important stuff off of floor level. A shop vac for smaller flooded areas, or an extra sump pump if you have an underground basement.

I think some companies make these inflatable tubes that go around your house and you can fill them with water and they provide a barrier about 2-3 feet high.

It's probably expensive and uses a lot of water, and requires a clear space around your house, but it's worth considering if it's an option for you.

For a more permanent investment, you could dig a trench and mound the dirt up beside it, but this depends on what's buried nearby. You could also try routing it to an artificial pond of some sort.

Make sure the drainage ditches and culverts near your house are clear. If they're overgrown or clogged, either clear them yourself or tell your county to clear them.

Beyond that, sandbags can help with the gaps under doors if you're just dealing with a few inches.

I don't understand what the red line is. Where is it identified?

I presume its the current years temperature, 3.5 standard deviations above average.

In short, it's on the top 0.01% of temperatures of the recorded data.

This wouldn't have happened if the weather had its own government 😠