Link: https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1vmq59t/do_the_math_on_the_change_in_conversion_metrics/

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The original was posted on /r/Superstonk by /u/iratebutisave on 2026-08-12 20:47:10+00:00.

OK let's do the math.

Premises

1. The original convertible note dilution was priced in. The stock price dropped when the notes were announced.

2. The convertible note conversion mechanics were changed from a set price to a VWAP determined by a trading window with an undisclosed floor.

3. The old weighted conversion price of the debt was roughly $29.18.

4. ASSUMPTION - $GME will trade in the ~$18 window until the VWAP closes.

5. ASSUMPTION - The floor for conversion is below $18.

MATH TIME MOFOS

Debt converted = $1.4bn

Old Price = $29.18

New Price = $18.00

Old # of shares = 47,978,067

New # of shares = 77,777,778

Difference = 29,799,711

Total $GME shares outstanding = 448.3m

New dilution % = 6.65%

Stock price before announcement = $21.72

Stock price today = $18.54

Difference = $3.18

Share decline %= 14.64%

So even if you didn't care about the improved financials, the $600m guidance, retiring debt and were solely focused on how big bad and scary dilution is AND you expected the price to decline further to justify a $18.00 VWAP for the period, you would price roughly a 6.65% decline in price from new dilution due the change in conversion metrics.

The actual price declined by more than twice that amount.

The exact day that someone got 1.4b reasons to want the price low. A someone who is going to want that price to be high after the conversion period closes.

This is the fakest price I've seen in a long time. If it holds up (please) I am going to take a $50k+ leap position but I have to move some shit around first.

*edited for readability