Here's what I will say: I hope before it dies that it gets archived well. There is a lot of cool shit we all put there before it became poop. Internet history, forum answers, AMAs with cool people, etc. A lot of my search results still hit something from Reddit 6 years so or something.

So I hope that gets saved when the company burns to the ground...

If you look for academic torrents, you'll find sets from 2005-2023, it's not tiny, but you can have all of reddit sitting around for local use if you want it

I don't think anything on the Fediverse will "succeed" insofar as it supplanting a popular commercially owned platform. I welcome being proven wrong, but I also think it's fine if it doesn't.

Reddit... I don't have a prediction for. I mean likely it'll fall out of favor eventually. But probably not for their bad behavior. All the big platforms are behaving badly and people en masse continue to tolerate it.