So am I supposed to believe that headline, or not?

How would they know?

Asking people how they feel could render so many variances so I'd go with sure, no, and maybe. Ask someone ignorant to any teachings of physics, a high school student who finished highschool physics and an aerospace engineering student how much they know about physics... All of them could say they wish they knew more to fully understand what they wish to understand.

Kind of like that old saying, the more you learn the more you realize you don't know.

It’s a toss up.

Given how many think a quarter is bigger than a third because the word sounds bigger, let's say, I'm not surprised.

One's got a four in it and the other's got a three, the bigger one is obvious.

It says more than half, so it's a sure thing.

Statistically correct answer unless you’re American. Then it’s either 100% correct or half an American 😁

depends on what the statistics is for though? its not a general one size fit all. like birth rates, death rates, education rates,,,etc.

Given statics was an AP class in my high school this doesn't surprise me.

Only more than half? Pfft. So that’s like… what… 5%? 10% max.

Statics is a different class entirely!

How many of you could fully explain how a p value is calculated (this may be the wrong sub to put this in, but I'll let my point stand)?

How much do you understand about statistics and p-values

I could tell you how it's used. I'd have to look up how to calculate it these days. I could tell you that's a shitty way to get to 67% of something using an ambiguous question that a high schooler could pick apart.

Shitty questions in, shitty conclusions out 🤷‍♂️

Nah, shitty questions as usual. Go around any country and all folks to explain a p value and how is derived.

Unless it's your day job that's just not information the common person retains. A cursory knowledge of what it is and how is used is all that's needed for most.

You don’t need to look up how a p value is calculated, the calculation depends entirely on your model and hypothesis assumptions.

The best way I’ve heard a p value described was “the degree to which the data are embarrassed by the null hypothesis”. It’s the most succinct, correct, and easy to remember description.

There's a reason statistics isn't required in highschool. Because if broke people knew the odds of the lottery, a lot wouldn't play. They're the ones supporting it basically.

Say it with me, free body diagram!

This is a free body diagram:

That's exactly it. Statistics is a far simpler math than functions or calculus, yet it doesn't get taught until university.

If people understood statistics, they would understand that all political polling is vastly underpowered.

P value just tells you how likely the difference between two data sets is just random chance.
Having said that, there are many ways to p hack to achieve significant values.

Stats is not just about p values. The math was developed to detect cheating in gambling. Anyone winning at a frequency beyond two standard deviations from the mean is cheating. Good cheaters know not to exceed that.

The odds of winning the lottery are the same as getting struck by lightning twice.

Easier to understand.

I’m probably being too pedantic, but that’s exactly correct, though it also captures the spirit and practically most common cases.

Just change “two datasets” to “a statistic”, because hypothesis tests can be pretty general.

I don’t love P values, they’re not quite an intuitive probability, they bake in a lot of assumptions, they can be deceptively over or under sensitive, and they’re hard to explain. As a tool they’re useful but they always need context and planning.

The lottery is just the tip of the iceberg.

But people don't learn statistics for the same old reasons: indoctrination, privilege/deprivation, ancient/misguided teaching standards, etc.

Similarly most people don't ever learn compsci/programming because for example they're studying calculus from the 1700s that they'll never use, etc.

The end goal is a compliant, obedient servant/prisoner, not an educated, critical person.

Even when I'm a storm chaser who likes to hang out in fields with metal poles? I like my odds!

What do the other 70% say?

Statistics often involves functions and calculus

That's why it annoys me when people complain about what they think is a small sample size.

Large sample sizes can be used to p hack

I'm pretty sure the field of statistics wasn't established by the gambling industry.

Also given how few people have to actually do statistical analysis. I took two different stats classes for my major, got As in both, but I couldn't tell you a single formula or anything now.

That's 50 trillion people! Imagine this!

Riiiiiiiight 👌👍

Honestly, not sure what I just read 🤷‍♂️

The median adult living in the median home, with the median income, doesn’t know what it means to be the median.

They're not wrong in that casinos use statistical analysis to detect card counters, but I'm relatively confident they didn't invent it.

They didn't, and as others have suggested, how to come up with p value can differ depending on the experiment.

He just needs some common sense

Not sure they're equivalent.

Maybe it's because I live in a tropical hell hole but I've had lightning strike the house multiple times. I ain't never won the lottery though

Well they either know it, or they don't.

It's 50/50 chance

I think it's about YOU, not your house.

I was more hedging against someone popping up with "Actually, in ancient Mesopotamia..."

Add it to the list.

1. Common Sense
2. Literacy
3. comprehension
4. critical thinking
5. Basic math
6. Statistics

So like EVERYONE???!!!

/s

Muh house aint never won the lotry neither