So this article is mostly just an analysis of the Deadline article from the other day. (Which is based on a report from Luminate.)

They place a lot of emphasis on user retention, but I just don't think that's true. A show with a good retention rate is a good thing, and probably increases the chances it gets renewed. But the same report has shows with low retention rates also being renewed.

In the case of Disney, I think they're pivoting away from live action Disney+ TV shows. They'll still have some, but they're not finding the return on investment worth it.

The other thing is that user retention is less important for monster of the week shows.

Let's look at Abbott Elementary, since it's the only broadcast scripted non-cable show to be nominated for an Emmy this last awards season. You can tune in to any episode of that show and have a good time. It's teachers, they have some school problems, the end.

But now look at Widow's Bay, the streaming only show that swept the Emmys. Even though each episode has a theme and you could watch a little out of order, you realistically need to watch the whole thing.

A low retention rate for Abbott Elementary is fine because people can come and go. For Widow's Bay? Once someone is gone they're probably not coming back.

Now if a show is a big hit, you can get people to catch up. If you've never heard of Widow's Bay but saw it sweep the awards, you might pick it up now. If you're Apple and trying to build a brand, you might not care if the retention rate is low, you're looking to build a brand of prestige.

All the subscriptions are too expensive to keep for more than one month