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Russia’s hybrid campaign has expanded. Moscow-linked arson and sabotage incidents rose from two in 2022 to 12 in 2023 and 34 in 2024. Hybrid methods have included cyber operations, airspace violations and sabotage of defence companies and railway infrastructure.
These attacks have significantly changed over the last two years. They are more aggressive, span more sectors and involve greater risks, such as plots to assassinate German defence executives or the recent incident at Leipzig/Halle airport. These operations aim to establish a “new normal”, making subsequent events less likely to spark outrage.
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Europe’s current resilience-centred approach, under which Russia often pays little to no price, risks encouraging further escalation. The fallout from the next attack on critical infrastructure could cause casualties, intentionally or otherwise, making escalation harder to contain. European governments should therefore strengthen deterrence by punishment: imposing tangible costs on Russia. This will change Moscow’s reasoning and dispel its belief that it can harm European states without meaningful consequences.
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Russia has learned that the threshold for triggering Article 5 is high and hostile action below it carries few consequences. Europe must therefore show that the space below Article 5 is not cost-free.
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