My pet peeve is when legit news orgs call them "Prediction markets" because they are literally just gambling apps.

Yeah, it absolutely is. Hopefully they knock it out of the park.

I thought Polymarket was still illegal in the USA, but it turns out they launched a new, US-specific version by acquiring an existing CTFC-licensed firm and focusing mostly on sports betting. Their main business is still illegal in the US.

I don't think legality means anything in the US anymore. At least not for the rich.

It's not gambling, we're just placing bets on statistical outcomes from which the winners are awarded money.

Babe, I didn't cheat; I just fucked another woman

It's not a war, we're just bombing and shooting each other for control over territory and resources.

I'm not drinking, I'm merely consuming an alcoholic beverage.

legit news orgs

Where are you finding those?

I'm not driving under the influence, I'm travelling under the influence.

These people are just sovereign citizens with a lot more money.

Yes, that is a gambling operation.

They were initially based on research into prediction markets. However that research, while interesting, certainly wasn't able to ...predict... what would happen when highly funded commercial enterprises with massive marketing budgets started pushing them right in the middle of an already growing gambling epidemic.

So, yes, they are now fully gambling apps with little predictive value.

One of the great ironies of these apps is that people are actively demanding they act more like gambling and less like prediction markets. For example, prediction markets require insiders to participate to function effectively. But the people using these apps, and people who hate these apps alike want to ban insiders from using them to keep them "fair". This pushes the apps even further from prediction and toward gambling.

They do still block US users from their main business, so they're at least still compliant in that way. If you go to polymarket.com from a US IP, it says "Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets."