The Ukraine War is NOT in a stalemate, rather russia's ground offensive is in the midst of changing directions. It should be obvious why shills for Putin, er I mean US leaders are so insistent that the war has reached an intractable stalemate, they desperately want to pause the animation before what comes up must come down...

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-8-2026/

Russian milbloggers are acknowledging that these Ukrainian counterattacks in the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions may have cascading effects and implications for Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt.

also see https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/ukrainian-assault-units-lost-10-times-less-in-vivaldi-operation-50648493.html

Further ground combat and offensive actions by Ukraine to hit back at russian ground forces DO NOT risk escalating this conflict, the war that is doing that and was designed to do that from the beginning was the Iran War not the Ukraine War.

Even if Ukraine launches a massive counteroffensive tomorrow and penetrates deep into russian territory, the stated military objective of Ukraine this entire time has been to stop the war not conquer russia and thus it is very difficult to engineer a situation where the Ukraine War would further destabilize the world. The Iran War on the other hand could easily end up with Netanyahu/Israel/the US/Steven Miller deciding to drop a nuclear bomb on Iran out of desperation or pure hate leading to global war.

examples of this disinformation

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Rubio-Warns-Ukraine-Stalemate-Could-Turn-Into-Wider-Conflict.html

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/kremlin-agrees-with-rubio-that-ukraine-war-is-in-a-stalemate-peskov-50648537.html

I, for one, am patiently waiting to change my maps to more accurately define Ukraine's borders to include the former "superpower".

Yeah, spot on analysis. It's been clear for a while to everyone paying attention that the trajectory of the war has been in Ukraine's favour for a while now

It's a hard, slow, brutal slog of a conflict, but Russia is bleeding strength a lot faster than Ukraine, while Ukraine is very adroitly eroding both Russia's economic and political ability to conduct the war.

Russia went into this conflict with a significant advantage in men and equipment, but they have not parlayed that advantage well, while Ukraine has always held a significant edge in national motivation. Ukrainians are fighting to survive, Russians have no idea what they're fighting for.

Putin cannot draw as deeply on his manpower resources as Ukraine can, and he cannot pivot his economy towards the war as substantially as Ukraine can.

That doesn't mean we're going to see Ukrainian tanks rolling into Moscow. As soon as this becomes a war of survival for the Russians, the math flips. But in regard to Ukraine's primary strategic goals of removing Russian occupation from their territory and ending the conflict on terms that ensure their long-term survival, that outcome is seeming increasingly likely.

When both sides say "We're winning" it's hard to say who is right. When one says "We're winning" and the other side wants to explain in great detail how the whole thing is a stalemate and actually the best possible thing for everyone would be for you to force their opponent to give up right now... It's not hard to guess what's really happening.

Also it may be stating the obvious but pre-emptively I want to squash the inevitable rightwing narrative that Ukraine in conducting a counter offensive is attempting to conquer russia.

Even if Ukraine does militarily take and hold russian territory, the idea that Ukraine is a threat to russian sovereignty is ridiculous. Even if Ukraine did march tanks into Moscow it would doom Ukraine in a way nothing else could.

Ukraine is strategically focused on repairing and rebuilding its wartorn country, it is not in the position, mindset or incentive structure to attempt to conquer and rule over large parts of areas that do not want Ukrainian forces there...

Yeah, that kind of thinking just seems like people who learned all their geopolitics from HOI4.

We ALL know who Stephen Miller sees as the Good Guys when he plays HOI4.

I am also quite sure Stephen Miller has an old account on the Paradox forums that was banned for arguing gas chambers should be added as a mechanic to the German side with its own associated "victory" condition to make it more "realistic".

ok I just made that last one up but my point is if this turned out to be true would you at all be surprised? What does that say about Stephen Miller?

Given how much closer Stephen Miller is to power than I am, I feel compelled to make this point.

Nah, you're right, that wouldn't surprise me for a second.