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AI bubble could burst and take global economy with it, IMF warns
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Aceticon lemmy.dbzer0.com Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com
Joined: 2024-12-06
#52 · (edited) Quote Reply

COVID took the global economy with it. Losing AI would be like... I don't even know, insignificantly small compared to that. If AI up and disappeared tomorrow when I clocked into work, it might actually make my job easier. I could be even more productive without having the slop floodgates open every day.

The problem is not the "losing of AI", it's the loss of human and physical resources that went into AI and will ultimatelly yield little or no Economic value when they could have been gone into productive Economic activities.

The human part is similar to COVID - people's time that could have been used in Economically productive activities was lost and will never come back - however the AI bubble differs in that actual physical resources have been wasted (mainly building and equiping datacenters) whilst during COVID fewer physical resources were used (mainly in vaccines and PPE).

Also the AI bubble is mostly concentrated in the US, whilst COVID was global, which means that the damage of it blowing up will probably be worse in the US, whilst that of COVID was much more diffused.

But the really big things is not even the AI bubble blowing up per-se - it's that there are other bubbles which are ready to blow (such as realestate Worldwide and auto-loans in the US) plus a worldwide Oil crisis caused by America's war against Iran, so the Economic shock of the AI bubble blowing will be amplified by the latter and will likely make the former blow up, almost certainly adding up to even more damage that the 2000 and 2008 Crashes (possibly as much as both put together).

COVID was a slowdown of Economic productivity, this shit will probably be the Find Out stages all on top of each other of years of Fuck Around misallocating resources in multiple Economic domains.

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Aceticon lemmy.dbzer0.com Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com
Joined: 2024-12-06
#53 · Quote Reply

If so, the technobros did this. The technobros should receive most of the consequences. There should be dire consequences but we all know who will receive most of that. The system is broken.

That's why the techbros made sure to buy the politicians.

This will be like 208-2012 but this time around it's the techbros businesses which will be deemed "Too big to fail" and get saved with public money and the central bank printing money to buy their bonds, whilst everybody else pays for it with Austerity.

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GardenGeek europe.pub GardenGeek@europe.pub
Joined: 2026-01-10
#54 · Quote Reply

The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: "AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs" Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren't AGI and it's unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI. Sadly the US went 'all-in' on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.

The lack of progress is one thing.

The value for money is another: AI companies are still burning through vast sums of capital, while users are indeed using the products more and more... but still nowhere near at a price that would even cover the companies’ costs, let alone be profitable. If each token costs a few dollars, demand is likely to shrink significantly again... because as long as the systems operate stochastically and, logically, produce erroneous results, it may take a very large number of tokens to obtain a result that’s actually usable (this is especially true when using AI to replace workers whose tasks and skills you actually have no clue about).

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Randelung lemmy.world Randelung@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-12-18
#55 · Quote Reply

The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: "AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs" Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren't AGI and it's unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI. Sadly the US went 'all-in' on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.

So even if the bet materializes, we lose. If it doesn't, we also lose because the economy implodes. Fun times.

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TBi lemmy.world TBi@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-07-09
#56 · Quote Reply

The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: "AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs" Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren't AGI and it's unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI. Sadly the US went 'all-in' on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.

Best thing about this whole AI bubble is that the mask is off and everyone can see. The rich will dump us in a instant.

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Randelung lemmy.world Randelung@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-12-18
#57 · (edited) Quote Reply

I'm convinced at this point the goal is to just not use money. Why do we have to be tied to this shitty fiat currency that isn't directly tied to physical worth?

Yep, that's the point at which people will recommend gold (which I've never trusted, either) or real estate so you're not homeless when everything goes poof.

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Obviouslywrong lemmy.world Obviouslywrong@lemmy.world
Joined: 2026-10-21
#58 · Quote Reply

The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: "AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs" Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren't AGI and it's unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI. Sadly the US went 'all-in' on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.

AGI will never happen with LLMs, but if you think in terms of a human brain out can be effective language and output and image recognition module. But there's no there there. Something else entirely is needed for true thought and sentience. But llm ai is already sufficient to translate machine thought into language sentences. You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself.

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puppinstuff lemmy.ca puppinstuff@lemmy.ca
Joined: 2025-02-03
#59 · (edited) Quote Reply

If they were at all serious about AGI there would be less focusing on ever-improving the dead end of LLMs on that. They just want employers to think they can pay robots less than their workers, full stop.

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Karjalan lemmy.world Karjalan@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-05-09
#60 · Quote Reply

Buffett Index: total stock valuation vs. GDP 1928: 130% 2007: 130% 2025: 220% Now guess where most of that stock growth and GDP came from? I'll give ya three guesses, but you're only going to need one.

Propane and propane accessories?

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spirinolas lemmy.world spirinolas@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#61 · Quote Reply

That would be awful, we must save them and give all our money to their wonderful project. We will sacrifice ourselves and live in the woods while they improve their drunk chatbot that should cure cancer any minute now.

Live in the woods?! Are you crazy, you need to work so you can pay taxes that will become their bailout!

You can go starve live in the woods when AI can do your job after stealing your data.

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spirinolas lemmy.world spirinolas@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#62 · (edited) Quote Reply

Don't worry, they'll use your taxes to make it profitable. Then, when AI can do your job by being trained by your data, they'll fire you and throw you to the curb and suddenly start talking about sustainability and the issue of overpopulation.

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thedeadwalking4242 lemmy.world thedeadwalking4242@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-08-10
#63 · Quote Reply

please.

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melsaskca lemmy.ca melsaskca@lemmy.ca
Joined: 2025-03-09
#64 · Quote Reply

So, if it takes the global economy away then you could still eat an apple but there would be no price tag attached. Money has always been a middle-man of questionable and ever-changing value.

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nonentity sh.itjust.works nonentity@sh.itjust.works
Joined: 2024-06-12
#65 · Quote Reply

The new pseudoscience taking out the incumbent pseudoscience is the net zero we need.

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nieminen lemmy.world nieminen@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-01-08
#66 · Quote Reply

The impossible mission force?! What are they doing making public statements?

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puz piefed.social puz@piefed.social
Joined: 2026-02-07
#67 · (edited) Quote Reply

*Techbros


Techno-bros raving at the club

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puz piefed.social puz@piefed.social
Joined: 2026-02-07
#68 · Quote Reply

AGI will never happen with LLMs, but if you think in terms of a human brain out can be effective language and output and image recognition module. But there's no there there. Something else entirely is needed for true thought and sentience. But llm ai is already sufficient to translate machine thought into language sentences. You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself.

You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself.

I know it's probably not intentional but you make it sound as if "just putting a spark of life" into the machine is easy

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BeMoreCareful lemmy.world BeMoreCareful@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-12
#69 · Quote Reply

Gigo

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horsesaysweird feddit.org horsesaysweird@feddit.org
Joined: 2026-08-17
#70 · Quote Reply

You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself. I know it's probably not intentional but you make it sound as if "just putting a spark of life" into the machine is easy

It may be easy. The issue is that nobody knows what that even means.

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Ilixtze lemmy.ml Ilixtze@lemmy.ml
Joined: 2025-06-03
#71 · Quote Reply

Burn it all down!

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AdolfSchmitler lemmy.world AdolfSchmitler@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-07-01
#72 · Quote Reply

The impossible mission force?! What are they doing making public statements?

They've been comprised. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to infiltrate the IMF and remove compromised agents by any means necessary. If you are captured or killed the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. Good luck. This message will self-destruct in 5....

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GreenKnight23 lemmy.world GreenKnight23@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-09-21
#73 · Quote Reply

good

if an oppressive corrupt regime is purposely hampering social progress for billions of people, not only should it fail, it should fail globally on a scale that resets global economies by centuries.

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boonhet sopuli.xyz boonhet@sopuli.xyz
Joined: 2025-06-16
#74 · (edited) Quote Reply

good if an oppressive corrupt regime is purposely hampering social progress for billions of people, not only should it fail, it should fail globally on a scale that resets global economies by centuries.

Yea, good. Billions of people should starve so a couple of wealthy people lose a bit of money but not enough to need to sell their yachts. Let's blow up the global economy!

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boonhet sopuli.xyz boonhet@sopuli.xyz
Joined: 2025-06-16
#75 · Quote Reply

So, if it takes the global economy away then you could still eat an apple but there would be no price tag attached. Money has always been a middle-man of questionable and ever-changing value.

It's not taking the global economy away in that sense.

It'll blow up the global economy in that a lot of people will be unemployed and everyone's retirement funds will crash (which is fair, because AI is what made them go up so fast in the first place). A few rich people will also lose a bunch of money, but the clever ones will actually profit off it.

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boonhet sopuli.xyz boonhet@sopuli.xyz
Joined: 2025-06-16
#76 · Quote Reply

if the promised profits fail to materialize. What profits? Nobody has money to spend and llm companies lose money on $200/mo subscriptions.

They lose money on those $200 a month subscriptions, but e.g Anthropic won't let you use the sub outside of Claude Code, so for anything that would use their API, $200 gets you less usage than one 5-hour session of that subscription.

Which doesn't stop them from losing a bunch of money to training though

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boonhet sopuli.xyz boonhet@sopuli.xyz
Joined: 2025-06-16
#77 · Quote Reply

Sorry. The techbros will get bailouts. Its the pensioners that will starve.

It's the pensioners who made most of the money from NVDA and MU price graphs going vertical anyway. Friendly reminder that people over 55 own 73% of the US, much of it via index fund based retirement funds and such. Isolating just the boomers, they own 8x more wealth than billionaires (though there's a fair bit of overlap of course, with a lot of billionaires themselves being boomers). Total over 50% of the US (including everything from cash to real estate to stocks) is owned JUST by the boomer generation.

Which is not to say the techbros aren't the problem, but in absolute dollar amounts, they're not actually the biggest beneficiaries - only per person did they make more money off this. Not as a class.

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CalypsoGirl lemmy.today CalypsoGirl@lemmy.today
Joined: 2026-08-15
#78 · Quote Reply

Okay just wake me up when UBI starts.

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GreenKnight23 lemmy.world GreenKnight23@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-09-21
#79 · Quote Reply

Yea, good. Billions of people should starve so a couple of wealthy people lose a bit of money but not enough to need to sell their yachts. Let's blow up the global economy!

ah, a centrist!

tell me. how many people will die from malnutrition and neglect when the human race is enslaved by a ruling class that only cares about increasing profits over social programs?

how many people will die when the environment crumbles and it's impossible to grow crops or support livestock without the power held by a ruling class?

tell me. how many people are you willing to sacrifice to ensure economic stability continues?

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RememberTheApollo_ lemmy.world RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-08-26
#80 · Quote Reply

I hope AI dies with a wheeze and a babble of nonsensical output that leaves the pseudoscientific and influencer crowd poring over it looking for meaning in it for decades.

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Obviouslywrong lemmy.world Obviouslywrong@lemmy.world
Joined: 2026-10-21
#81 · Quote Reply

You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself. I know it's probably not intentional but you make it sound as if "just putting a spark of life" into the machine is easy

No, the spark of life implies something magical or unknown that you can't make. Like a human can never make a spark on their own, you need something from the outside to make it or happen.

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puz piefed.social puz@piefed.social
Joined: 2026-02-07
#82 · Quote Reply

No, the spark of life implies something magical or unknown that you can't make. Like a human can never make a spark on their own, you need something from the outside to make it or happen.

like god? \s

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NocturnalMorning lemmy.world NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#83 · Quote Reply

I am using chatgpt without paying them. I'm doing my part to waste their resources! When AI finally stops being shoved down my throat, it'll be a good day.

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fodor lemmy.zip fodor@lemmy.zip
Joined: 2025-06-05
#84 · Quote Reply

[deleted]
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A404 lemmy.dbzer0.com A404@lemmy.dbzer0.com
Joined: 2026-04-11
#85 · Quote Reply

The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: "AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs" Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren't AGI and it's unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI. Sadly the US went 'all-in' on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.

They know climate change will take down capitalism. They are hoping for AGI to save them.

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lechekaflan lemmy.world lechekaflan@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-21
#86 · Quote Reply

Been doomsday-prepped since 10 years ago. Expecting the worst at anytime.

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brucethemoose lemmy.world brucethemoose@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-03-22
#87 · (edited) Quote Reply

I am using chatgpt without paying them. I'm doing my part to waste their resources! When AI finally stops being shoved down my throat, it'll be a good day.

You think they aren’t harvesting your data for advertising?

And even if you are somehow anonymized, any usage to juice their numbers is what they want.

If you want to stick it to ChatGPT, use their competition. GLM, Xiaomi, Deepseek, Mistral, Nemotron, whatever;their absolute deepest fear is the public pivoting to actually free models. And you can use them with whatever level of privacy you wish, since you aren’t locked to vendors.

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NocturnalMorning lemmy.world NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#88 · Quote Reply

You think they aren’t harvesting your data for advertising? And even if you are somehow anonymized, any usage to juice their numbers is what they want. If you want to stick it to ChatGPT, use their competition. GLM, Xiaomi, Deepseek, Mistral, Nemotron, whatever;their absolute deepest fear is the public pivoting to actually free models. And you can use them with whatever level of privacy you wis...

I mean, we could also just not have AI at all. I dunno what point you're trying to make, but it's not landing. I am extremely anti-AI, and I want it to just go away. But, guess what, it isn't, and they will keep shoving it down our throats until the AI bubble bursts and they take the global economy with it.

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DreiradOllie mastodon.social fckusa@mastodon.social
Joined: 2026-06-19
#89 · Quote Reply

I mean, we could also just not have AI at all. I dunno what point you're trying to make, but it's not landing. I am extremely anti-AI, and I want it to just go away. But, guess what, it isn't, and they will keep shoving it down our throats until the AI bubble bursts and they take the global economy with it.

@NocturnalMorning @brucethemoose How can you be "extremely anti-"AI" and still use a LLM? There is no right life in the wrong one. Theodor W. AdornoThere is no ethical use of "AI"

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NocturnalMorning lemmy.world NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#90 · Quote Reply

@NocturnalMorning @brucethemoose How can you be "extremely anti-"AI" and still use a LLM? There is no right life in the wrong one. Theodor W. AdornoThere is no ethical use of "AI"

Oh boy, another, you want to improve society, and yet you participate in it argument. Gee, how original. I understand what you are trying ti get at, but you aren't going to win any friends going around telling everyone they are evil for using a tool that is being shoved down all of societies throat.

Hell, my work has an internal AI tool, and I refuse to use it. Are you happy? Probably not.

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DreiradOllie mastodon.social fckusa@mastodon.social
Joined: 2026-06-19
#91 · Quote Reply

Oh boy, another, you want to improve society, and yet you participate in it argument. Gee, how original. I understand what you are trying ti get at, but you aren't going to win any friends going around telling everyone they are evil for using a tool that is being shoved down all of societies throat. Hell, my work has an internal AI tool, and I refuse to use it. Are you happy? Probably not.

@NocturnalMorning It's not about winning you as friend. It is your free choice using Chat GPT or other "tools" as you call them mad by antidemocratic transhumanistic Tech Oligarchs.

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NocturnalMorning lemmy.world NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world
Joined: 2023-06-30
#92 · Quote Reply

@NocturnalMorning It's not about winning you as friend. It is your free choice using Chat GPT or other "tools" as you call them mad by antidemocratic transhumanistic Tech Oligarchs.

Do you just go around trolling people everywhere you go, or are you incapable of having a discussion with people without insulting them or someone else in the process? You're preaching to the choir anyway...

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DreiradOllie mastodon.social fckusa@mastodon.social
Joined: 2026-06-19
#93 · Quote Reply

Do you just go around trolling people everywhere you go, or are you incapable of having a discussion with people without insulting them or someone else in the process? You're preaching to the choir anyway...

@NocturnalMorning Call it trolling if it makes you feel better but knowing about the negative effects doesn't make it better.

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brucethemoose lemmy.world brucethemoose@lemmy.world
Joined: 2024-03-22
#94 · (edited) Quote Reply

Oh boy, another, you want to improve society, and yet you participate in it argument. Gee, how original. I understand what you are trying ti get at, but you aren't going to win any friends going around telling everyone they are evil for using a tool that is being shoved down all of societies throat. Hell, my work has an internal AI tool, and I refuse to use it. Are you happy? Probably not.

Oh boy, another, you want to improve society, and yet you participate in it argument.

Then why not use Reddit, too?

...But you're already on Lemmy.

No one is making you use ChatGPT; there are free alternatives every direction you look. This is not a 'participating in society' argument, it's a really low-effort choice, far lower effort than choosing to use the Fediverse.

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