Link: https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/nate-silver-suggests-momentous-midterms-might-mark-the-end-of-the-trump-era/

"People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls," Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.

The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.

Probably not the end, but likely a shifting into a new phase. One where he'll simply ignore outcomes, rules, boundaries, orders. You know - like he always does. Except worse. Always, always, somehow....worse.

There's gonna be violence. And death. You're not getting him out of there except in a body bag.

dont forget election night 2016 when every one thought it was over then

Good content, Nate Silver knows what he’s talking about, but why didn’t you link the original source?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nate-silver.html

It’s not paywalled. And mediaite is a questionable source, to the extent that even Wikipedia advises against citing them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Perennial_sources

It’s generally best practice, most ethical, and good information hygiene, to link the original source instead of a downstream “repost,” or at least to link it in the post text.

Indeed. But many pollsters (like Nate) acknowledged this huge miscalculation in hindsight, and have tried to dissect that and predict with that in mind.

In fact, the original source addresses this and discusses the topic extensively. It’s most of the interview:

I think Democrats have the emotional feeling that when there’s a polling error, it is against them. Because Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and just in general — polls actually have repeatedly underestimated Donald Trump. But is that true? And is it particularly true in midterms? Have polling errors been consistently against Democrats?

Also Trump and Iran are now in an escalation trap. The Iran war is very likely to continue to escalate, and the odds increase if(when) Trump loses the mid terms.

They will use the war to try to stop the Democrats from investigating them by characterizing investigations as an attack on the troops, treason, etc...