Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.

The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
   the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
   may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
   landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
   become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
   expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
   Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible
   over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
   and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
   bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
   strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
   Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
   also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
   late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
   location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
   should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
   that they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.0N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.9N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 20.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 26.3N  85.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Original Post:

(800 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023)
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

(1205 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023)
Invest AL93: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure
(invest AL93) over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle and
60 nm in the S semicircle of the low. Current winds are 20 kt
with seas of around 5 ft. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the
progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.