Link: https://www.lyrebirddreaming.com/post/bombing-doesn-t-build-peace-and-democracy?cid=041a981b-853b-4355-a7b0-1182c033c5f6

So here’s the uncomfortable question Australians should ask, especially when our leader Anthony Albanese was so quick to line up behind the strikes: what exactly is the theory of change?

Not the slogan. Not the press release. The real theory. How, precisely, does dropping bombs - or killing a dictator - make Iranian women freer, Iranian prisons emptier, Iranian courts fairer, or Iranian politics more accountable? And how does it secure long-term peace in the Middle East.

If we can’t answer that in plain language, then we are not looking at a pathway to peace and human rights. We’re looking at protracted violence and dysfunction dressed up as virtue.

If the goal were really peace in the Middle East and genuine human rights improvement, the tools would look different: sustained diplomacy, targeted measures that minimise civilian harm, support for independent media and civil society, refugee protection, multilateral pressure through the UN system, and patient work to reduce incentives for escalation.

Could you provide some examples of where this has worked?

I mean it's not too late, you can still do the above with North Korea, it's only been 60 years? I'm sure any day with that stuff they'll see the light

It may not directly fix any of those problems, but every solution to those problems requires Khamenei to be dead.

Could you provide some examples of where this has worked?

Has the West (with some countries being excepted) actually ever tried the above combined methods? I doubt it. I am not a historian and someone else here may have examples but from what I know, since WW2 the West (US-led alliances) has attempted "regime change" in countries in most continents by coercion and violence and it has not worked, or worked for a very short time and left the occupied countries often in a worse mess than they were before.

As for North Korea, a peace has, in fact, been maintained for the last 60 years. We haven't been at war with them, have we, nor have they been at hot war with anyone else, have they? What they do in their own country is their business. Although I'm sure if they had oil and/or rare earth minerals the West would be there attempting regime change to bring democracy and freedom to the people. On the other hand, the US has been happy to support corrupt regimes which also oppressed their peoples and they never offered to liberate them.

Can you please give reasons?

I was planning on waiting for someone to suggest a solution where he isn't removed from society. I'm patient.

What they do in their own country is their business

Damn that's ice cold, sorry I can't be as apathetic as you to people being executed for watching a k-drama

Why did you even post this? Why do you care what Iran does, it's citizens are happy that the US intervened and the evil regime has suffered, as you said, it's their business not ours.

So it will allow the US to say to whoever takes over “do what you want just give us all the oil we need” or whatever. Basically look at Venezuela.

That’s two decapitation strikes in as many months. I wonder who’s next.

I can assure you I am not apathetic and I had not heard that people get executed for watching a k-drama. I don't know if that is even true. And do you mean to say you are warm-hearted because you care about what happens in NK but are quite happy to see tens of thousands killed, if not more, by the time this war is over. People are saying it's going to drag out.

You obviously pay attention to mainstream media. I suggest you look at other sources of information for some balance. The majority of Iranians are not happy to be bombed in order to be 'liberated'. Remember Iraq? What's the situation with Iraq since the war that killed about 200,000? Was that not evil? I care about Iranian civilians (and all civilians) because they have a right to their sovereignty and through this war the civilian death toll is going to be high.

But you are not giving your reasons. He has been killed it has been reported. Do you think all the problems are over now and we can all go home and watch Netflix?

but are quite happy to see tens of thousands killed, if not more, by the time this war is over

Tens of thousands have ALREADY been killed

https://aussie.zone/comment/21680206

As mentioned here:

I assume you’ve gotten over this which happened barely a month ago:

Disappeared bodies, mass burials and ‘30,000 dead’: what is the truth of Iran’s death toll?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead

Posted here:

Iran’s anti-government protests claim more than 640 lives

https://aussie.zone/post/28579108?scrollToComments=true

and here:

Iran signals fast trials and executions for protesters as crackdown death toll exceeds 2,500

https://aussie.zone/post/28620585?scrollToComments=true

and here:

At least 3,428 killed in Iranian crackdown on protesters, NGO says

https://aussie.zone/post/28639607?scrollToComments=true

and here:

[FR] An unprecedented massacre in the history of Iran: more than 12,000 protesters reportedly killed since Thursday.

https://aussie.zone/post/28587698?scrollToComments=true

With all but 2 comments posted on all of them

Sounds like selective outrage to me m8

You obviously pay attention to mainstream media.

Obviously ay? It's not like I talk to Iranians in real life or follow lots of news from lots of sources? so happy you're able to quickly put me in a container and educate me on the correct narrative.

The dude was 86, it's laughable to pretend his successor wasn't ready to go.

As to your question:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2026/01/mark-carney-turns-off-geolocation-on-phone-just-in-case/

Maybe they were trying to prevent the chosen successor then.

Pot calling the kettle black perhaps? You were a lot quicker in calling me apathetic and cold-hearted. Perhaps more experienced in this social media invective than I am.

The number of protesters reportedly killed in Iran changes depending on who is doing the reporting. The numbers of people killed by govt and external non-govt agents also changes. That should tell you that none of us really have accurate figures. What seems to be clear to me is that if this war drags on as the say it will, we are going to see deaths in the hundreds of thousands, in and outside of Iran. As if witnessing a couple of genocides and various other bombings of countries is not enough.

yes sorry been doing this for 25 years now, i was busy watching cnn live stream tanks going into iraq and before that the explosions as missiles hit afghanistan

That should tell you that none of us really have accurate figures.

Fans of the evil islamic regime are pissed meanwhile there are more than enough Iranians around the world and inside Iran celebrating to tell you all you need to know

we are going to see deaths in the hundreds of thousands, in and outside of Iran

Yes I already have been witnessing this daily for 4 years now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine

If you think I’ll stop donating to Ukraine to help it in its fight for freedom because of over 100,000 deaths and a non exact death toll you’ll have to forgive me we have a difference of opinion

Bombing for Peace is like Fucking for Virginity. - George Carlin

seemed to work against Nazis and Japan

That is way too reductive, and ultimately incorrect.

Bombing Germany and Japan may have decimated their respective armies and leadership, but it was the decades-long boots on the ground occupation and rebuilding that ensured those countries were able to develop into democracies.

Given our (collective Western) failures to do so in both Iraq and Afghanistan, I don’t hold high hopes for the future of Iran - despite how much I wish for its people to be able to return to the freedoms they had for a brief period under Mosaddegh in the early ‘50s.

Why are you bringing off-topic countries into this thread I wonder. I've never mentioned Ukraine just like I never mentioned NK until you did. Why would I object to your donations to Ukraine? Civilians are suffering greatly there. I am all for protecting and aiding civilians wherever they may be.

We see the celebrating Iranians but we are not seeing any interviews with people who object to the bombing of their country. But they are there.

I don’t really care about those who liked the evil regime, iranians have been crying out for change for decades now and the wholesale slaughter of them peacefully protesting last month was one of the most brutal acts of repression ive seen ever

your 'sources' are the guardian and people from the iranian diaspora? lol.

I don't normally wade into these threads because they're normally very emotionally charged but discrediting people cause they no longer live in the country of question denies displaced communities a voice.

Your statement would mean refugees or individuals who had the funds to legally (or illegally) escape from places like Syria under the Assad regime should be ignored as they don't live in the country (roughly 6.2 million refugees or displaced individuals from as early as 2011).

While we should always take care when taking statements from any individual or group at face value and we should always complement them with a wide range of research from various sources we should never discredit someone's voice because of something as arbitrary as not living in a country anymore.

their voices probably shouldn't be ignored outright, but certainly they should carry less weight than people who currently live in the country, and their comments should be put within appropriate geopolitical context.

Western media is permitted in iran, and specifically they have channels such as 'iran international' which operate as instruments of psychological conditioning, to soften the domestic population for hybrid warfare, and to inorganically create social disunity within iran. This has the effect of polluting the minds of regular people who maybe lack a degree of historical or geopolitical knowledge, and who blame their economic hardships on their own government rather than on the exogenous unilateral sanctions.

This means that plenty of iranians think in the same crude emotional terms as westerners, because they are products of the same cultural conditioning. Basically it means this diaspora are incredibly biased, and often believe delusional things about their country and the world. Talk to some iranian monarchists if you haven't experienced what i'm talking about. Yes it is something of a stereotype and a generalisation but it describes a very real phenomenon.

What do your 'wide sources' (something other than a government document from a 5-eyes member) tell you about syria and the challenges it faced as it repeatedly fought isis/al qaeda only to eventually be conquered by the rebranded al-qaeda (HTS) and its current head-chopper president?