FAFO. It’s been seven months since the first warning shots, but they made no moves to kick the US out.

Where are they going to purchase them from though is the question. The US was barely able to produce any, and that was before China cut off rare earths supply.

That's what 2billi will get you I guess

I think the plan is to have Iran's arsenal of ballistic missiles demolished before then.

How would that happen exactly? Look at Ukraine, Russia's been bombing it for four years now, and Iran is three times the size. There's no realistic scenario where Iran can be defeated in a quick war here.

The goal isn't to defeat Iran in a quick war, but to neutralize the nation's long range artillery and turn it into a free fire zone for American and Israel armies.

Ukraine isn't Iran. It has a firm rear guard of support from the NATO block, supply lines that can re-arm and re-staff depleted arsenals and positions along the eastern front, and allied agencies ready to pick at Russia's flanks - by seizing cargo shipping, assassinating ranking political leadership, and blowing up critical domestic infrastructure.

What the Iranians lack, at the end of the day, is friends. Nobody in the Russian, Pakistani, or Chinese government is going to send saboteurs into Israel on their behalf. Nobody is going to help them keep the Straight of Hormuz shuttered. Nobody is going to blow up Saudi desalination plants or bomb peripheral American military bases.

Once Iran military can no longer produce and deploy new ballistic missiles, the country just becomes target practice for its enemies. We (probably) won't see a Rumsfeld-style blitz into Tehran, like they managed in Baghdad. But we will see Iranian airspace closed, critical infrastructure destroyed, and population centers targeted to effectively break up the political face of Iran into its component parts.

What becomes of a nation without a central bureaucracy, an intercity municipal system, or a functional electrical grid? This was a country already in a water crisis months ago. It is a nation functionally under siege by the most sadistic and savage militaries in history. People are going to die by the millions before this is over, simply due to disease, drought, and famine. It's going to be a country the size of Germany experiencing what Israel has done to Gaza.

Quite literally bombed into the Stone Age.

Again, not clear how the US plans to neutralize long range missile capability of Iran.

Iran has firm support from Russia and China with supply lines running through friendly territory. Russia alone outproduces all of NATO militarily right now by a factor of three. Iran itself has a large industrial base, and can outproduce the US in things like missile production. It's obvious that the logistics for the US are far worse than they are for Iran here. I also don't really see Iran lacking in friends at all. It's pretty clear they're getting a lot of economic and military support from both Russia and China.

Also, this might be a surprise for you, but Iran can choose which ships they allow to sail through the strait of Hormuz the same way Yemen allowed Chinese and Russian ships to sail through Suez.

The Iranian military will be able to produce missiles long after the US military loses its capacity to do so because China isn't blocking rare earths supplies from Iran like they are form the US. The Americans have no meaningful capacity to produce critical inputs themselves.

NATO spent a huge chunk of their existing stock piles in Ukraine over past four years, and their production capacity is laughably low. Once the US runs through its missile supplies in the next few weeks, it's not clear what options they have at that point.

Meanwhile, if you think that the US is going to break up political face of Iran by bombing then you're absolutely delusional. There's been no single conflict in history where this actually happened, and Iran will certainly not going to be the first here.

You quite literally have no clue regarding the subject you're opining on here.

It is depressing that you may be right. I hope it doesn't come to it though.

Again, not clear how the US plans to neutralize long range missile capability of Iran.

Target the depots and destroy them with artillery.

You quite literally have no clue regarding the subject you’re opining on here.

This was established decades ago in excersises the US has been running since the Cold War Era.

Not only that, plenty of people are droning/missling on Iran's behalf, because it's also in their interest.

As I said I'm the other thread about this, this is a factor (not a variable): https://sh.itjust.works/post/56181411

god damn

It's not pretty.

Just when I stopped putting liquids in quart-sized Ziploc bags after over two decades of security theater, they’re manufacturing a new crisis for cranking the police state up to 11.

Target the depots and destroy them with artillery.

When you definitely understand how artillery works. 🤣

It's entirely possible that there's going to be a mass uprising against US backed regimes in the region. Any regime that openly allies with Israel isn't going to last long.

I hope you are right.

But wait! There's more!

https://lemmy.ca/post/61226066

Just do what you reasonably can, look out for neighbors, whenever you can. The etymology of "panic" should help. Besides, it's not going to change anything. Methodical, concrete action may.

I guess we'll likely know in a month or so how this all develops.

I'm going to be frank, because I respect you, and you deserve honesty. I'm of the more and more firm opinion that being somewhat delusional, at least for the actual boots in action, plays no small part in who becomes the victor in wars.

Apologies if I've touched a nerve.

🫂

huh?

The US hasn't been in an actual war since Vietnam. There's a lot of mythology that's been built up that leads people to think that American power is invincible, but now we're seeing it actually tested by an adversary that can fight back. I don't think we'll be seeing any triumph of the will here. Material reality always wins and it's not on America's side this time around.

Iraq 1 and 2? Afghanistan? Anyway we see how that turned out. And I'm not sure either state is better off, despite USA planning ineptitude. I just pray you're right, and you may well be.

Don't flatter yourself. None of us can easily predict how this will go, including you. We're guessing, with a bunch of sociopaths on drugs and alcohol in charge on the Hill. I pray Yoggy is correct and the sociopaths don't nuke anyone.

These aren't even remotely comparable. Iraq had 70s Soviet technology, while Afghanistan didn't even have that. These are precisely the kinds of wars the US military is configured for where the opponent can't hit back. Iran is technologically on par with the US, and even surpasses it in some areas like hypersonic weapons. The US has no equivalent to Iranian drones either which it's forced to intercept with multi million dollar missiles. We can already see how Iran has been able to hit US assets all over the region, and the US can't do a thing about it.

If you look at the size of Iran it becomes quite obvious that the US can't possibly bomb enough of it to even make a dent in Iran's industrial capacity. This is going to be a war of attrition with Iran fighting on its home turf while the US is forced to ship what meager weapons it's still able to produce all the way across the ocean.

Not to mention that Iran also has land routes to both Russia and China that go through friendly territory. So it will be getting all the material support it needs, the same way Ukraine currently gets support from NATO.

This is a little encouraging. I pray you are right.