With just over six weeks until the election, YouGov poll for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University - the largest so far - has applied the latest MRP modelling to offer a predicted breakdown of how many seats each party will win in each of the 16 new constituencies
An increase for Labour puts them third on 13% and resulting in 12 seats, meaning Eluned Morgan’s party would not elect anyone in four constituencies, including her own in Ceredgion Penfro.
*Includes neat map at the bottom of article to check the poll's vote share/seat projections in each constituency