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Who would have seen this coming…

I was curious about the differentiation between predictions on delays and cancellations.

Delays happen all the time in complex projects. A relatively modest level of cancellations is also to be expected, you'll have relatively less experienced "business hustlers" pitching completely unrealistic proposals to returns hungry rich investors or even larger entities attempting some level on consolidation and cancelling the least efficient projects.

But if say 40% of planned projects for 2026 (on a capacity basis) are permanently cancelled that seems like a sign of more systematic issues.

I wasn't able to get the PDF because they want my email and name. But the stats shared in the article and promo page actually imply that delivery rates will be below 50% (capacity basis):

At least 16GW of capacity is slated to come online in 2026 across roughly 140 projects. Yet only about 5GW is currently under construction. Around 11GW remains in the announced stage with no visible construction progress, despite typical build timelines of 12–18 months.

5 GW out of 16 is 31% and just because something is under construction, doesn't mean it can't slip. I guess some smaller projects may be be able to rapidly build out and deliver in 9 months, but this sounds more like an exception.

I do wonder what the rate of "legal" fraud (not a fly by night rug pull) is in this area what percentage of the both planned and under construction capacity is attributed to hyoerscalers/large tech firms and the major "AI" firms.

So sad.... Not sad.

I have a ... theroetical AI data center under construction.

Devastated truly I am. /s