I don’t know. Am I doing that when I say that Taiwan should ideally be an independent state because that’s ultimately what they want?

Where was that "right now" there?

When did I say the poll should be “thrown out”? I’m just giving my reading of it.

How is the way I read a poll means I am trying to tell Taiwan what to do?

What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo

See above.

Also, I'm just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?

Again, I'm giving you my opinion. I'm not saying Taiwan should immediately declare independence (it would be obviously very dangerous for them to do this). I'm just saying that it seems likely to me that if China were to back-off, that Taiwan would very quickly officially declare independence and rebrand.

And again: I’m just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?

That’s not what the polls show and I don’t see how that’s relevant regardless. If space aliens attacked, maybe Taiwan would seek unification with China for mutual protection. But there aren’t any space aliens so who gives a shit? That’s not the world we live in.

I'm telling you how I interpret the polls. Giving you my opinion.

Plenty of people in the US ruling class, but I don’t see how that’s relevant. I’m criticizing your position.

Name them openly calling for Taiwan to declare independence.

I don't really care if they do, to be honest. I value self-determination more.

To be clear, the stereotype of the dumb American is at least true since at least the Iraq War.

In that case, my “interpretation” of the 2024 US presidential election is that, once you exclude all the votes for bourgeois parties, The Party For Socialism and Liberation won the election with 171k votes. Three cheers for President De la Cruz!

How would you evaluate it seriously? Why would this make sense even as you're clearly not being serious?

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for one.

What did he say specifically encouraging Taiwan to do this?

Again, establish relevance please. Again, I am criticizing your position.

You said specifically that people of power in the west are lining up to try and convince Taiwanese politicians to just declare independence asap.

From Australia's POV: China blockades Taiwan (or economically chokes them a different way) and Taiwan gives in. We don't step in coz we want lithium from our China daddy so we can build our own AI data centres.

Social media complains about it until either something distracts us or it lasts over a month and everyone gets over it.

I don’t see what you’re confused about. If you can throw out 96% of responses in a poll and call it an “interpretation,” then why can’t I throw out 99.88% of votes and call it an interpretation too? Is there a line somewhere between 96% and 99.88%?

I didn't "throw them out" - I simply stated that I think the country would be on a process to independence now if the pressures from China weren't there. More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese.

Quote me where I said this.

"Plenty of people in the US ruling class, but I don’t see how that’s relevant. I’m criticizing your position."

“Taiwan is a sovereign and free country.” A clear and direct deviation from the status quo of strategic ambiguity.

That isn't telling Taiwan to do anything. That's just him running his mouth. US politicians say that without specifically petitioning for or directing Taiwan to officially repudiate their historical claims and declare independence.

You arbitrarily excluded their responses. Again, “if this” “if that” it doesn’t matter. Taiwanese people are answering the polls based on what they think is best for them in the situation as it actually exists, and we should be looking at the situation the same way. Not basing opinions based on imagined hypotheticals with nothing to do with anything.

Sure, and given that China very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that's likely to temper many responses.

The US formally recognizing Taiwan would be a huge deviation from the status quo.

Him doing that wasn't the USA doing that though.

Cool, that sounds like a great reason why maintaining the status quo is a good idea. We should probably listen to the majority, who wisely consider the actual ramifications of these options instead of fools who only care about hypotheticals.

Did I say otherwise?

My point was that realities were having an impact.

No, I didn't. Me giving an opinion on the results of a poll (or many polls, to be clear) is not saying that Taiwan should just declare independence.

When your “opinion” on a poll involves throwing out 96% of respondents because they didn’t say that Taiwan should just declare independence, yeah it kinda is.

No, it's not. I am me, you are not. I decide what I think. You do not. I give you my opinion on the realities that likely frame how Taiwanese people are answering these polls. That's not me saying that Taiwan should officially declare independence as soon as possible.

I am not "excluding data" in the first place. I am just giving you my observations on it.

You are completely delusional and ignorant of history and reality.

Mighty rich coming from a .ml user lol

Why would it matter if the us had missiles in Taiwan if China didn't want to take it over? The us can place missiles in South Korea, Japan or you know, ICBMs are a thing.

Your reasoning is so flawed, why would it be more likely for the US to succeed in a coup in china if Taiwan was free?

Yes, that was in a direct comparison between pro-independence and pro-unification votes.

I still maintain my position on the polling itself: More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese. China also very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.

I can make these observations without also saying that Taiwan should declare independence officially as soon as possible.

What facts have I thrown out? How am I a chauvinist?

Sadly the current status quo is the best solution.

Imperialism? How is this imperialism?

It's not even key west it's more like they ran away to Maine

This thread is wild. All these "freedom and democracy" lovers apparently don't know anything about China or Taiwan. Give Taiwan nukes? Insanity.

No, the KMT. The current governing parties are the KMT and the TPP. And the KMT is openly pro-mainland.

World power attempting to subordinate and subsume its neighbor by threats of invasion? How is it not imperialism?

Arguably the US's defense of Taiwan is also imperialist but a more benign form than the CPC's actions here. The Taiwanese people are just pawns in the struggle for global domination.

The President is DPP though. And it's a coalition, is it not?

What if the people don't want to unify with China?

How am I blaming Taiwan? They're trying to survive like anyone else. What that looks like is dictated mostly by the US, which represents an existential threat to the rest of the world.

So you think the only reason that Taiwan has not merged into the PRC is because the USA forbids it?

I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.

I accept the poll results as they are, but contextualise them regarding my own understanding.

I have given you my argument. Show me yours for how what I have said indicates I have murdered puppies.

Well if not for US interference blocking the final CPC offensive of the civil war the KMT would not have been safe on the island of Taiwan to institute the white terror and setup the holdout it is today. So in a way yes. Also without massive US investment the island would not have been able to modernise in the manner it did and this would likely lead the island to be less developed and more favourable to reunification. Major US backing of parties like the DPP who push hard for the idea of a separate Taiwanese culture that isn't really that real and whitewashing of Japanese colonization of the island plays a role too. So in a big way yes but it's more complicated than simply the US saying no.

Because imperialism isn't when invasion. You really should learn what words mean before you use them. Imperialism is a capitalist phenomena where high stage capitalist powers enforce(through force or other means) unequal exchange and super exploitation upon subordinate nations to extract super profits. The PRC has never done that.

I'm talking about now. Taiwan has been a democratic state now since the 1990s. US investing in them is bad now? So you're basically complaining here that the USA (the west) invested and modernised Taiwan, and if they hadn't done that and just left them to their own devices - they'd have been poor and impoverished and wanted to join China? I'm not sure how this looks good to you.

Major US backing of parties like the DPP who push hard for the idea of a separate Taiwanese culture that isn’t really that real

Seems to me that it doesn't really matter how a culture or identity of a people emerges. If the majority of Taiwanese now feel different to mainlanders due to very different divergences since after the civil war, then that's simply the reality of the situation.

You could also just say this about any country, really. The only reason that any country acquires a consensus of a set of values is due to investment, or government propaganda, or whatever and then use that as a means to just handwave away their self-determination.

I don’t have to. I can just ignore whatever you say and put whatever I feel like into your mouth because that’s how it works, apparently.

I haven't done that. I've given you my arguments.

Where did I ignore anything? Am I specifically saying the polls should be ignored? As I said, I'm not saying that Taiwan should do anything. All I'm doing is saying that in a binary choice between independence (officially) where they wouldn't be threatened for going down that path and unification, I suspect most Taiwanese would choose independence.

Maybe there’s somebody holding you hostage and forcing you to post your comments when you actually want to confess to a bunch of puppy murders. I guess I’m just allowed to assume that, and no matter what evidence you can provide, I’ll just assume that the guy holding you hostage is forcing you to fabricate it.

Again, I've given you my arguments.

Or, we can live in a world where evidence actually exists, even when it tells us things contrary to our preconceived opinions, and you can stop arbitrarily silence the perspectives of majority of Taiwanese people and put your own ideas into their mouths.

Me giving you my opinion based on my reading of a number of factors about that poll, and other polls is somehow putting words in other people's mouths?

Are you unaware of the history of Taiwan? How it became "independent"?

That's just a nonsense definition invented by Stalin to apologize for his own imperialism. No one else uses that definition. I'll agree that this is a form of imperialism but it is far from the only form. The absurdity here is that by this definition classical empires like Rome didn't even engage in imperialism. When your definition excludes the textbook empire, maybe that's a sign that something has gone wrong here...

Although arguably the PRC has done that even by this muddled definition.

I am familiar. How is that relevant here?

Yes! You literally said that the majority of responses should be excluded!

Where? Quote me? I just gave my analysis. It's a poll. It doesn't actually have any specific legal application. I'm just giving you my opinion on it.

This might be hard to understand if you’re used to following American politics, but we don’t actually have to write off all the good, sane, popular options and chose between two bad options that nobody wants.

Right, it's a hypothetical where Taiwan could freely choose between recognised statehood and unifying with China. I think they would choose to be a state. The status of their current system is not ideal for anyone - even if it doesn't in practice harm anyone that much, but is maintained purely to keep the peace.

If you call your decision to arbitrarily ignore evidence an “opinion” or “interpretation” one more time, I’m blocking you.

What evidence have I ignored? I don't believe you can just look at those specific polls and say "Gee, I think the Taiwanese must be completely divided or overtly support the status quo purely because they prefer it to either unification or independence". The "status quo" is a result of geopolitical realities that, for obvious reasons, is better than the geopolitical alternatives.

Yes, because your “opinion” is literally just excluding any responses you don’t agree with so that the ones you do agree with appear more popular than they are. As I have explained over and over to you.

And I will just copy and paste my explanation each time.

I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.

I accept the poll results as they are, but I think fairly determine that more people in Taiwan would support statehood if they thought it a viable and safe option.

I’m not making a value judgement about democracy or development. I’m just describing the history.

The modern political entity of Taiwan exists because the US blocked the conclusion of the Chinese Civil War, militarily protected the KMT regime, and then spent decades turning the island into an anti-communist forward base much like West Germany and South Korea.

After that came massive US capital, security guarantees, and direct political influence (including backing parties like the DPP) which actively promote a separate Taiwanese national identity while marginalizing pro-reunification perspectives. This "identity" was cultivated over generations under Cold War conditions.

Taiwan is not really that culturally distinctnfrom a Chinese perspective. In fact, Taiwan–Fujian cultural distance is far smaller than Fujian to Kunming, or Kunming to Harbin. China has always been regionally diverse. Taiwan isn’t really am outlier.

So yes, many people in Taiwan feel separate today. But that feeling developed under decades of US protection, anti-mainland education, media shaping, and political engineering. Calling that “pure self-determination” while ignoring the external power that made it possible is ahistorical.

I’m not saying this is good or bad. I’m saying the current situation is the product of US intervention. Without that, this holdout simply wouldn’t exist.

Taiwan wasn’t allowed to resolve its civil war trajectory. It was frozen in place and rebuilt as a strategic asset. Everything that followed flows from that.

Whether you view any of this as good or bad is simply down to ideology. Do you support people or money.

Taiwan is not really that culturally distinctnfrom a Chinese perspective. In fact, Taiwan–Fujian cultural distance is far smaller than Fujian to Kunming, or Kunming to Harbin. China has always been regionally diverse. Taiwan isn’t really am outlier.

Okay? So?

So yes, many people in Taiwan feel separate today. But that feeling developed under decades of US protection, anti-mainland education, media shaping, and political engineering. Calling that “pure self-determination” while ignoring the external power that made it possible is ahistorical.

So what? As I said, I don't really think this matters. Do you think mainland culture didn't change after decades of the PRC existing in any sense?

Whether you view any of this as good or bad is simply down to ideology. Do you support people or money.

People. The people don't seem to want to join the PRC so that's who I support.